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Paper predicts end of COVID-19 pandemic by mid-September

Date: 10 June 2020 Tags: Miscellaneous

Issue

A paper based on a mathematical model published in the journal Epidemiology International by two scientists from the Ministry of Health, has claimed that COVID-19 pandemic in India may come to an end by mid-September.

 

Background

A journal is called predatory when substandard papers are published for a fee with little or no peer-reviewing and published papers are not indexed in standard databases. 

 

Details

  • The analysis shows that when the number of infected becomes equal to those removed from circulation by recovery and death, the coefficient will reach the 100 per cent threshold and the epidemic will be "extinguished".

  • They used the Bailey's mathematical model to draw the projection. This stochastic mathematical model takes into consideration the distribution of the total size of an epidemic, involving both infection and removal.

  • The model employed was of the 'continuous infection' type, according to which infected individuals continue as sources of infection until removed from circulation by recovery or death.

  • In this, the removal rate is worked out after calculating the percentage of removed persons in the infected population. Further, regression analysis has been done, to get the results regarding relationship between the total infection rate and the total recovery rate.

  • For doing the analysis experts used the secondary data for COVID -19 in India from Worldometers.info on the number of cases reported in the country since March 1 to May 19 along with total of cumulative recovered cases and cumulative deaths.

  • Regression Analysis (Linear) of Bailey's Relative Removal Rate (BMRRR), COVID 19, in India shows that the linear line is reaching to 100 in the mid of September.

  • Pointing out the limitations of the analysis, the paper stated that it is based on collected secondary data for a specific period of time to fit and estimate the basic case number, infection rate, and recovery rate of COVID-19.