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Current Affairs

Shrinking population of India

Date: 17 July 2020 Tags: Reports & Indices

Issue

A new analysis has projected that the world population will peak much earlier than previously estimated. It projects a peak at 9.73 billion in 2064, which is 36 years earlier than the 11 billion peaks projected for 2100.

 

Background

For India, the report projects a peak population of 1.6 billion in 2048, up from 1.38 billion in 2017. By 2100, the population is projected to decline by 32% to 1.09 billion.

 

Details

  • The study analysed population trends in 195 countries. It used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 to model future populations in various scenarios as a function of fertility, migration, and mortality rates.

  • The forecasts highlight huge challenges to the economic growth of a shrinking workforce, the high burden on health and social support systems of an ageing population.

  • Continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth.

  • The global Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is predicted to steadily decline from 2.37 in 2017 to 1.66 in 2100. The TFR is projected to fall below 2.1 in 183 countries. In 23 countries including Japan, Thailand, Italy, and Spain, it is projected to shrink by more than 50%.

  • The total population in India will increase and peak just before mid-century, followed by significant declines. Similarly, the working-age population will also increase in the first half of the century, and then decline in the second half.

  • Wealthy countries such as the UK and the USA could counteract the impact of these changes through the net migration of working-age adults from countries with growing populations. 

 

 Major highlights

  • India’s TFR was already below 2.1 in 2019. The TFR is projected to continue a steep decline until about 2040, reaching 1.29 in 2100.

  • The number of working-age adults (20–64 years) in India is projected to fall from around 748 million in 2017 to around 578 million in 2100. However, this will be the largest working-age population in the world by 2100. 

  • From 2017 to 2100, India is projected to rise up the list of countries with the largest GDP, from 7th to 3rd.

  • India is projected to have the second-largest net immigration in 2100, with an estimated half a million more people immigrating to India in 2100 than emigrating out.

  • Among the 10 countries with the largest populations in 2017 or 2100, India is projected to have one of the lowest life expectancies (79.3 years in 2100, up from 69.1 in 2017).