New study on climate change
Date: 19 February 2022 Tags: Climate ChangeIssue
A new study suggests that different scenarios when earth is warmed by upto 1.8 degrees Celsius and 3.6 degrees Celsius will be based on social system.
Details
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The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement is the most prominent temperature-control goal to limit global temperature below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
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It will slow the process of global warming by reducing temperature to well below 2 degrees of pre-industrial levels.
Human actions to limit global warming
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Global emission targets of countries are not in line with limiting global warming to under 1.5 degrees.
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In order to make that happen, global oil and gas production should decline by three percent per year until 2050.
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The net-zero targets just limit further addition of carbon but they do not help in reducing the existing carbon concentration.
Determinants of climate change effects
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Public perceptions of climate change
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Future cost and effectiveness of climate mitigation and technologies
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Response of political institutions to public pressure
The study
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The study says that scientists must take into account the effects of climate policy and social change while making scientific projections.
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To identify different variables relevant to the climate-social system, they simulated 100,000 possible future policy and emissions trajectories.
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Their predictions say that warming will vary between 1.8 and 3.6 degrees Celsius. There is a strong probability of warming between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius at the end of the century.
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It further says that, no policies meet the Paris Climate Agreement’s target of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
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Key drivers of people’s perception on climate change are improvements in mitigation technology and the responsiveness of political institutions.