Current Affairs

Issue

A new study suggests that different scenarios when earth is warmed by upto 1.8 degrees Celsius and 3.6 degrees Celsius will be based on social system.

 

Details

• The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement is the most prominent temperature-control goal to limit global temperature below 1.5 degrees Celsius.

• It will slow the process of global warming by reducing temperature to well below 2 degrees of pre-industrial levels.

 

Human actions to limit global warming

• Global emission targets of countries are not in line with limiting global warming to under 1.5 degrees.

• In order to make that happen, global oil and gas production should decline by three percent per year until 2050.

• The net-zero targets just limit further addition of carbon but they do not help in reducing the existing carbon concentration.

 

Determinants of climate change effects

• Public perceptions of climate change

• Future cost and effectiveness of climate mitigation and technologies

• Response of political institutions to public pressure 

 

The study

• The study says that scientists must take into account the effects of climate policy and social change while making scientific projections.

• To identify different variables relevant to the climate-social system, they simulated 100,000 possible future policy and emissions trajectories.

• Their predictions say that warming will vary between 1.8 and 3.6 degrees Celsius. There is a strong probability of warming between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius at the end of the century. 

• It further says that, no policies meet the Paris Climate Agreement’s target of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. 

• Key drivers of people’s perception on climate change are improvements in mitigation technology and the responsiveness of political institutions.